Munich Security Conference 2024: Roundup on the Four Pillars

Munich Security Conference 2024: Roundup on the Four Pillars

Minh Nguyen is the Editor of the Boston Global Forum and a Shinzo Abe Initiative Fellow. She writes the Four Pillars column in the BGF Weekly newsletter.

 

The Munich Security Conference, an annual conference focused on security and defense issues around the world, took place over the past week. Top issues discussed were the Russo-Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza. In addition, delegations discussed issues in the Indo-Pacific and Africa.

It is clear that the Four Pillars, or at least those focused on the war in Ukraine, should continue the return to capacity of NATO – meaning increasing defense spending to the 2% target, continuing ammunition and artillery production to Ukraine. It is clear that if Ukraine fails, that puts the rest of Europe in danger, as well as the broader global order in Asia and elsewhere too. As it were, Europe must continue ramping up defense.

However, the “vibes” and sentiments of the participants, as it were, were not positive coming out of the conference. Trump’s comment on NATO members, the death of Alexei Navalny, and Ukraine’s loss in Avdiivka signals a more grim portent for the Pillars. These challenges are things that they will have to grapple with in not just the coming months, but years. Still, some remain optimistic about Ukraine’s chances at winning the war.

Ursula von der Leyen, the current EU Commissioner and a recipient of the AIWS Peace and Security Award, has announced that she is seeking a second term as commissioner. Her current tenure has faced challenges in the pandemic and the invasion, but it has also brought back federalism and a stronger EU.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris smile at the end of a press conference at the Munich Security Conference in Munich on Feb. 17. Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images

Boston Global Forum to unveil the Special Report on Peace and Security Solutions at the Shinzo Abe Initiative Conference

Boston Global Forum to unveil the Special Report on Peace and Security Solutions at the Shinzo Abe Initiative Conference

In a significant development aimed at addressing global conflict and instability, the Boston Global Forum (BGF) has announced its forthcoming unveiling of the Shinzo Abe Initiative Special Report on Solutions for Peace and Security in Conflict and War Areas. This report will be presented and discussed at the Shinzo Abe Initiative Conference in Tokyo on March 28, 2024.

The Shinzo Abe Initiative Conference serves as a platform for fostering dialogue and collaboration among policymakers, scholars, and thought leaders on pressing global challenges. At this year’s conference, BGF will present the findings and recommendations of the Special Report, which promises to offer innovative insights into resolving conflicts and promoting peace in war-torn regions worldwide.

The Special Report represents a culmination of extensive research, analysis, and expert input from leading figures in the field of international relations, conflict resolution, and peacebuilding. It provides a comprehensive examination of key conflict zones and war-torn regions across the globe, identifying underlying causes, dynamics, and humanitarian impacts of ongoing conflicts.

The unveiling and discussion of the Shinzo Abe Initiative Special Report are expected to catalyze meaningful dialogue and action towards achieving sustainable peace and security in conflict-affected areas. Participants at the conference will have the opportunity to engage with the report’s findings, exchange perspectives, and explore collaborative strategies for addressing the complex challenges of conflict resolution and peacebuilding.

As the global community grapples with the urgent need for effective solutions to mitigate conflict and promote stability, the Shinzo Abe Initiative Special Report stands as a beacon of hope and a call to action for concerted efforts towards a more peaceful and secure world.

Japanese Minister for Foreign Affair speaks at the Shinzo Abe Initiative Conference in April 5, 2023 in Tokyo

Tech giants pledge action against deceptive AI in elections

Tech giants pledge action against deceptive AI in elections

A voter leaves a polling booth at St. Anthony Community Center during the presidential primary election, Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Tech giants including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, X, OpenAI and TikTok unveiled an agreement on Friday aimed at mitigating the risk that artificial intelligence will disrupt elections in 2024.

The tech industry “accord” takes aim at AI-generated images, video and audio that could deceive voters about candidates, election officials and the voting process. But it stops short of calling for an outright ban on such content.

And while the agreement is a show of unity for platforms with billions of collective users, it largely outlines initiatives that are already underway, such as efforts to detect and label AI-generated content.

Fears over how AI could be used to mislead voters and maliciously misrepresent those running for office are escalating in a year that will see millions of people around the world head to the polls. Apparent AI-generated audio has already been used to impersonate President Biden discouraging Democrats from voting in New Hampshire’s January primary and to purportedly show a leading candidate claiming to rig the vote in Slovakia’s September election.

“The intentional and undisclosed generation and distribution of Deceptive AI Election content can deceive the public in ways that jeopardize the integrity of electoral processes,” the text of the accord says. “We affirm that the protection of electoral integrity and public trust is a shared responsibility and a common good that transcends partisan interests and national borders.”

The companies rolled out the agreement at the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of heads of state, intelligence and military officials and diplomats dubbed the “Davos of Defense.”

The agreement is a voluntary set of principles and commitments from the tech companies. It includes developing technology to watermark, detect and label realistic content that’s been created with AI; assessing the models that underlie AI software to identify risks for abuse; and supporting efforts to educate the public about AI. The agreement does not spell out how the commitments will be enforced.

Work on the accord began at the start of the year and the final agreement came together in just six weeks. Its broad scope lacks the specific, enforceable measures many tech critics have pushed for, but likely reflects the challenge of getting 20 different companies on board in such a short timeframe.

Microsoft president Brad Smith said the show of industry unity is itself an accomplishment.

“We all want and need to innovate. We want and need to compete with each other. We want and need to grow our businesses,” he said. “But it’s also just indispensable that we adhere to a high level of responsibility, that we acknowledge and address the problems that are very real, including to democracy.”

The 20 companies signing the agreement include those that make tools for generating AI content, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Adobe. It’s also been signed by Eleven Labs, whose voice cloning technology researchers believe was behind the fake Biden audio. Platforms that distribute content including Facebook and Instagram owner Meta, TikTok and X, the company formerly known as Twitter, also signed.

Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, said coming together as an industry, on top of work the companies are already doing, was necessary because of the scale of the threat AI poses.

“All our defenses are only as strong against the deceptive use of AI during elections as our collective efforts,” he said. “Generative AI content doesn’t just stay within the silo of one platform. It moves across the internet at great speed from one platform to the next.”

With its focus on transparency, education, and detecting and labeling deceptive AI content rather than removing it, the agreement reflects the tech industry’s hesitance to more aggressively police political content.

Critics on the right have mounted a pressure campaign in Congress and the courts against social media platform policies and partnerships with government agencies and academics aimed at tamping down election-related falsehoods. As a result, some tech companies have backed off those efforts. In particular, misinformation, propaganda and hate speech have all surged on X since Elon Musk’s takeover, according to researchers.

Microsoft’s Smith said the agreement makes a clear distinction between free speech, which the companies are committed to protecting, and deceptive content.

“Let every person speak for themself. Let groups stand together and speak out on the issues they care about. But don’t deceive or fundamentally defraud the public by trying to put in someone’s mouth words that were never spoken,” he said. “That’s not, in our view, free expression. That’s called fraud and deceit.”

New wrinkle to an old problem

Just how disruptive a force AI will be this election cycle remains an open and unanswerable question.

Some experts fear the risk is hard to overstate.

“The power afforded by new technologies that can be used by adversaries — it’s going to be awful,” said Joe Kiniry, chief scientist of the open-source election technology company Free & Fair. “I don’t think we can do science-fiction writing right now that’s going to approach some of the things we’re going to see over the next year.”

But election officials and the federal government maintain the effect will be more muted.

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the arm of the Department of Homeland Security tasked with election security, said in a recent report that generative AI capabilities “will likely not introduce new risks, but they may amplify existing risks to election infrastructure” like disinformation about voting processes and cybersecurity threats.

AI dominated many conversations at a conference of state secretaries of state earlier this month in Washington, D.C. Election officials were quick to note they’ve been fighting against misinformation about their processes for years, so in many ways AI’s recent advance is just an evolution of something they are already familiar with.

“AI needs to be exposed for the amplifier that it is, not the great mysterious, world-changing, calamity-inducing monstrosity that some people are making it out to be,” said Adrian Fontes, the Democratic secretary of state of Arizona. “It is a tool by which bad messages can spread, but it’s also a tool by which great efficiencies can be discovered.”

While some election experts fear the risk of AI is hard to overstate, others, like Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, say it’s not the “calamity-inducing monstrosity that some people are making it out to be.” Ross D. Franklin/AP

One specific worry that came up frequently was how difficult it is to encourage the public to be skeptical of what they see online without having that skepticism turn into a broader distrust and disengagement of all information.

Officials expect, for instance, that candidates will claim more and more that true information is AI-generated, a phenomenon known as the liar’s dividend.

“It will become easier to claim anything is fake,” Adriana Stephan, an election security analyst with CISA, said during a panel about AI at the conference.

Regulators are eyeing guardrails too

Many of the signatories to the new tech accord have already announced efforts that fall under the areas the agreement covers. Meta, TikTok and Google require users to disclose when they post realistic AI-generated content. TikTok has banned AI fakes of public figures when they’re used for political or commercial endorsements. OpenAI doesn’t allow its tools to be used for political campaigning, creating chatbots impersonating candidates, or discouraging people from voting.

Last week Meta said it will start labeling images created with leading AI tools in the coming months, using invisible markers the industry is developing. Meta also requires advertisers to disclose the use of AI in ads about elections, politics and social issues, and bars political advertisers from using the company’s own generative AI tools to make ads.

Efforts to identify and label AI-generated audio and video are more nascent, even as they have already been used to mislead voters, as in New Hampshire.

But even as tech companies respond to pressure over how their products could be misused, they are also pushing ahead with even more advanced technology. On Thursday, OpenAI announced a tool that generates realistic videos up to a minute long from simple text prompts.

The moves by companies to voluntarily rein in the use of AI come as regulators are grappling with how to set guardrails on the new technology.

European lawmakers are poised in April to approve the Artificial Intelligence Act, a sweeping set of rules billed as the world’s first comprehensive AI law.

In the U.S., a range of proposed federal laws regulating the technology, including banning deceptive deepfakes in elections and creating a new agency to oversee AI, haven’t gained much traction. States are moving faster, with lawmakers in some 32 states introducing bills to regulate deepfakes in elections since the beginning of this year, according to the progressive advocacy group Public Citizen.

Critics of Silicon Valley say that while AI is amplifying existing threats in elections, the risks presented by technology are broader than the companies’ newest tools.

“The leading tech-related threat to this year’s elections, however, stems not from the creation of content with AI but from a more familiar source: the distribution of false, hateful, and violent content via social media platforms,” researchers at the New York University Stern Center for Business and Human Rights wrote in a report this week criticizing content moderation changes made at Meta, Google and X.

Congratulations to new Finnish President Stubb

Congratulations to new Finnish President Stubb

Dear Alexander Stubb,

On behalf of the Boston Global Forum, we extend our heartfelt congratulations to you on your election as the President of Finland. This momentous occasion is a testament to your exemplary leadership, dedication, and vision for the betterment of your nation and the world.

We are privileged to have had the opportunity to collaborate with you on numerous occasions, including your participation and insightful contributions to the special conference about the Social Contract for the AI Age of AIWS, co-organized by the Boston Global Forum and World Leadership Alliance-Club de Madrid in September 2020. Your presence and expertise enriched the discussions and propelled us towards crafting innovative solutions for the challenges of the AI era.

Furthermore, your unwavering commitment to the AI World Society Initiative and your invaluable contributions to various Boston Global Forum conferences as a Global Enlightenment Leader have left an indelible mark on our community. Your vision, intellect, and passion for positive change have inspired countless individuals worldwide.

As you embark on this new chapter of leadership, we have every confidence that you will continue to uphold the principles of integrity, inclusivity, and progress that define your distinguished career. Your presidency holds the promise of advancing Finland’s prosperity, fostering international cooperation, and championing the values of democracy and human rights.

Once again, congratulations on your well-deserved appointment. We look forward to witnessing the remarkable achievements that lie ahead under your guidance.

 

With warm regards,

Michael Dukakis

Co-founder and Chair

Boston Global Forum

 

Nguyen Anh Tuan

Co-founder and CEO

Boston Global Forum

President Alexander Stubb at the Boston Global Forum – Club de Madrid Conference in September 2020 on the Social Contract for the AI Age

OpenAI shows off lifelike videos generated by Sora, its new AI tool

OpenAI shows off lifelike videos generated by Sora, its new AI tool

The New OpenAI Technology can create realistic videos from just a line of text: Sora can render richly detailed videos based on written prompts.

However, the tool further raises concerns about deepfakes as AI continues to show up in elections around the world.

The new tool, called Sora, will initially only be available to a small group of artists and filmmakers as well as “red teamers,” or researchers who try to find ways that an AI tool can be used for malicious purposes, OpenAI said in an announcement Thursday, Feb 15.

Sora builds on the tech behind OpenAI’s image-generating DALL-E tool. It interprets a user’s prompt, expanding it into a more detailed set of instructions, and then uses an AI model trained on video and images to create the new video.

The quality of AI-generated images, audio and video has rapidly increased over the past year, with companies like OpenAI, Google, Meta and Stable Diffusion racing to make more capable tools and find ways to sell them. At the same time, democracy advocates and AI researchers have warned that the tools are already being used to trick and lie to voters.

Read the reporting from the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal.

The OpenAI logo is reflected in a human eye at a studio in Paris on June 6. (Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images)