This week has been a more mellow one, but that doesn’t mean that nothing happened. In fact, plenty happened in the Four Pillars space, but as these are small events or stories without an broad overarching theme like last week or the NATO summit. We have compiled them into a list for the audience to peruse, with notes and analysis to put it into the Four Pillars context.
Four Pillars, Ukraine, and Russia:
- NATO finds gaping holes in Europe’s defences [Reuters]
- Putin is convinced he can outlast the West and win in Ukraine [Atlantic Council]
- Pentagon finds another $2 billion of accounting errors for Ukraine aid [Reuters]
- EU transfers 1.5 billion euros from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine [Reuters]
The Pillars continue to find some worrying issues with preparedness in the face of Russian aggression. Still, they were able to find money under the couch cushion to continue aiding Ukraine, the current shield of the continent against Russia. The longer-term view is that the Europe Pillar should be wary of Putin’s calculations – he is willing to take as long as he needs to achieve his revanchist ambition, and at any cost too – a mad ideologue is hard to reason with.
The Europe Pillar and the Hungary Problem:
- Hungary quietly takes €1B loan from Chinese banks [Politico Europe]
- Polish Foreign Ministry suggests Hungary leave EU, NATO after Orban’s controversial statements [Kyiv Independent]
Hungary, a member of the EU and NATO, continues to be a Fifth-Column in these organizations (that are vital to the Four Pillars), with quasi-dictator Viktor Orban making grand overtures to Putin and more recently, China, allowing the country to fester with Chinese police presence and be used as a launching pad for these adversaries of the Pillars. However, perhaps it would be best to still keep Hungary in these organizations instead of kicking them out, because that could allow Hungary to invite Chinese or Russian military presence in the heart of Europe. It would be best to keep them in, but at the furthest arm’s length possible. Similar to how Austria, whose intelligence structure had been thoroughly compromised by Russia, European countries should leave Hungary out of any information, technology, or intel sharing program. Furthermore, Brussels should reform the one–vote veto, as in its current state, Hungary has the power to exploit it to benefit Russia.
The Pillars and China in the Indo-Pacific:
- India wins terminal rights to strategic Mongla Port in Bangladesh over China [FirstPost]
- The Puzzle of Chinese Escalation vs Restraint in the South China Sea [War on the Rocks]
- Justice Department says TikTok collected US user views on issues like abortion and gun control [AP]
- U.S., Japan to announce upgrade in military cooperation [CBS]
A grouping of smaller news, but these should serve as a reminder of the main threat to the Pillars – the CCP and its quest for global hegemony. Soft influence by the CCP is already felt in the domestic scene of the Pillars, the brazen example being TikTok, and the Pillars would do well to guard against these potential vectors of demoralization and disinformation, in addition to the more militaristic and security-based build-ups that have been happening. Remember that each Pillar do not stand alone in this regional chess game against the PRC – the US, Japan, and India have great mutual interests here, and Europe has a stake too.
