(BGF) – Recently, BGF was fortunate to have the chance to talk with Professor Shigeto Sonoda, professor of sociology and Asian studies at the University of Tokyo. BGF asked Professor Sonoda, who was a participant in BGF’s April 24th conference, for his views on how resolve the tensions between China and Japan, as well as the role of the United States. Professor Sonoda’s response, and thoughts on the conflict, are provided below.
Prof. Sonoda: There are some measures that can be taken to solve this problem. The Japanese side and Chinese side should move a little bit behind – both sides should refrain from being too aggressive by stating only their own standpoint or maintaining their own perspectives.
The second point is that, especially the Japanese side, should refrain from using history issues. When the Japanese Government, especially Prime Minister Abe, tried to challenge the issue of history or textbook issues then it is quite difficult for him to get the kind of support from intellectuals in the global community. So, he or the government in Japan, should make a clear statement that they are dealing with the issue of history for a more positive, bright future. At the same time, China or the Chinese Government, should refrain from using the history card to make their standpoint much better in the global community.
Thirdly, and most importantly, some of the professors have a lot of negative and pessimistic ideas about the impact of the so-called soft power. I think soft power matters and soft power is really important to find a better way to solve the tension between Japan and China. I have talked to a lot of researchers about the people’s attitudes toward Japan in China and toward China in Japan. It’s quite evident that those who have close contact with the people in different countries have more positive attitudes towards their contemporary relations, as well as future prospects. One of the tragedies of the tension between Japan and China is that the main character has been the government, not the citizens and the people who have close network with other countries. Those who have a close network with China in Japan are looking at the Japanese Government’s situation rather from pessimistic perspectives – they are simply worrying. I think the same can be said of the Chinese citizens who have many friends in Japan and who are exposed to Japanese popular culture in China.
So, speaking of the U.S. role, the U.S. should take a more mutual position by taking advantage of geographical distance to let two sides speak and exchange ideas together. I think this would be the best way to solve the tension between Japan and China.
BGF: Please comment on the article in the New York Times April 23 : “Pacific Rim Deal Could Reduce Chance of Unintended Conflict in Contested Seas ?”
Prof. Sonoda: I agree with the idea of Ian Storey, who mentioned that the approval on the code is “a very positive development, but it remains to be seen how effectively it will be implemented”. Approval is just an approval. More solid foundation is needed between China and Japan.
BGF: Can “soft power “overcome “hard power” if China elects to use it?
Prof. Sonoda: Yes, definitely. Domestically Chinese politics will operate if people will believe in whether the politicians’ words are “culturally/morally justifiable. The same can be said to the diplomacy.
BGF: Regarding another party in this region….How could Japan/China utilize ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) to address their dispute as well as stabilize the political situation, given that China is also having some territory conflicts with a few ASEAN countries ?(China and Japan are currently active members of ASEAN + 3).
Prof. Sonoda: ASEAN is an important international political actor. Both Japan and China should listen to their voices. Solving territorial issues in international settings is of great importance in order to stabilize international political situation. Both Japan and China should know that they will not be able to persuade the third countries that their claim is justifiable unless they could persuade ASEAN.
BGF: China leaders are too aggressive which gives rise to extreme nationalism. They tend to only think about their benefit…What sort of compromise solution would China have to accept?
Prof. Sonoda: “Losing face” is the worst scenario for China’s diplomacy. If no countries around China will support her nationalist claims, they might “lose face.” Neighboring countries, not US alone, should unite together and approach China softly – I think this would be the best way to draw China’s compromise.
BGF: If BGF did have solutions, how could Governments be convinced to accept and apply them?
Prof. Sonoda: Solutions proposed by BGF should be balanced and convincing to both governments. Otherwise, governments will not listen to BGF.
BGF: In solving conflicts between Japan and China which country would find it more difficult?
Prof. Sonoda: China. Because China has territorial issues with other Asian countries. Their attitude toward Sino-Japan relations will influence Sino-Vietnamese relations and Sino-Filipino relations, too. Of course Japan has territorial issues with South Korean and Russia, but Senkaku issue has little to do with Takeshima/Dokdo issue or south Kuril Islands issue because they are located in different sea.
BGF: What incentives and disincentives can the U.S. use to encourage Japan and China to take constructive unilateral or bilateral steps to reduce tension and to work toward an eventual peaceful outcome? In short, realistically, what tools does the U.S. have and can it use really use those tools?
Prof. Sonoda: Words. US should strongly accuse both China and Japan of their failure to maintain peaceful relationship between them.
BGF: What price each party (China, Japan and U.S.) is willing to pay if war breaks out in Northeast Asia?
Prof. Sonoda: Both sides don’t think of paying cost for the break of war. Weight of life in China used to be lighter than that of Japan, let’s say, fifty years ago when China was under the Cultural Revolution for the “class struggle.” But economic growth in China produced (upper) middle class who fears the loss of the fortune, including their own life. As China’s politics is heavily dependent on (upper) middle class, it is unimaginable that China is willing to pay cost for another big war.
BGF: There are so many rumors about the potential conflict between China and Japan due to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute. How could the US prevent such event happen between their closest ally and their biggest debt owner (also biggest rivalry in the region)?
Prof. Sonoda: Again words are very important. US should respect China and create (spatial and psychological) space to discuss ideas. Most important thing is not to let “(oral) quarrel” change into “(physical) fighting and war.”
BGF: Now the Obama Administration is talking the strategic ‘pivot’ to Asia. It sounds nice and fancy. But what do you think is the most effective mechanism for the US to project their power in the context that China is now fiercely stretching their muscles and asserting their claims?
Prof. Sonoda: Using “soft power” is important. As my own survey research prevails, many domestic Chinese students even in elite universities do not know how neighboring countries are looking at China. US, which has many good universities and research institutes, should make a voice and persuade her in a scientific and moral way. Now US has many brilliant students from China who will be a future leader. Why not use “soft power” for peace building?
BGF: Last year, China established the ADIZ in the East China Sea that has raised the afraid it will continue up ADIZ in South China Sea . How do you evaluate about this risk? Its effects, especially with countries like Vietnam, the Philippines? There are evaluating if the Chinese do this, it will be a risky step. What is your opinion?
Prof. Sonoda: Yes, it’s really risky. But China sometimes tries to set up criteria /standard/ law of their own even when they try to solve “international affairs.” Surrounding countries and US should keep on claiming its danger and the necessity to talk with us.
BGF: About China’s ADIZ, U.S movement as of expressing alliance with Japan is widely considered lacking of resolute, tough. Some analysts also stated U.S. strategy with China increasingly vague, and soft. According to you, this choice is a kind “soft power” or the weakness of Obama?
Prof. Sonoda: It’s not “soft power” at all. Probably US’s message is not clear enough.
BGF: Given the current problems in the Ukraine Do you think China will be more proactive in pushing her goals of aggression as the world’s attention is directed elsewhere?
Prof. Sonoda: Possible. China is now following the Russian way to “secure oil.” More important thing is how to construct “international resource management regime” that China can accept.
BGF: Do you think that China or Japan would risk going to all out war with their current economic situations?
Prof. Sonoda: NO. I hope not. Both governments are seeking for “peaceful” solution for their territorial issues even though they keep on claiming their own legitimacy.